Was it culture or the fundamentals?
While the overall situation is not catastrophic, it’s important for Democrats to thoughtfully evaluate the direction they want their party to take and to understand the factors contributing to the recent decline in voter support. Possible reasons could include concerns related to the economy, immigration, or discussions around LGBTQ policies. Public perception of President Biden may also play a role, among other considerations.
I find myself reflecting on the conversations I’ve had, where the most frequently mentioned topics were economic issues and transgender policies. Although these two subjects may not seem directly connected, Trump effectively framed them as intertwined concerns for voters.
A number of voters expressed the view that Democrats might be overly focused on what they refer to as “wokeism,” including transgender issues. In contrast, Trump positioned himself as someone who prioritizes individual concerns, while Democrats were perceived as more focused on broader identity-related matters. Below I have a poll that reflects voters’ sentiments and is in line with what many other polls have been finding.
So why did this happen, and what can Democrats do to address it? A former Trump operative once described campaigning as similar to sweeping during a curling match, and I find that comparison fitting. While you cannot always change the fundamental aspects of your campaign, you can still guide and influence how people feel about the fundamentals. So in the short term, we need to strengthen our brand. Democrats should not sacrifice LGBTQ individuals, and they must clearly define their beliefs and priorities. The Bostock decision granted Title VII protections to the LGBTQ community, and this should be part of the Democratic platform. However, issues like sports participation and healthcare coverage for transgender surgery in prisons lead to backlash and make Democrats appear disconnected from the concerns of the working class.
However, that refers to 1b, not 1a. Democrats did not succeed in passing the PRO Act, fail to implement a minimum wage increase, effectively communicate the improving economy, or highlight the jobs created by the Chips Act and the Inflation Reduction Act. Now that Democrats are no longer in control, they need to organize their policies and urge Republicans to either support the initiatives that working-class voters need or show that Republicans are not their allies. Key issues include union protections, an increased minimum wage, improved worker rights, and greater access to quality healthcare and education. The Democratic narrative should focus on the idea that government can work, and they will make it work for the people. Democrats can improve the lives of all Americans. There is no zero-sum game between men, women, minorities, they/them or anyone; the government works for all of us. We can and will achieve an opportunity economy!